The Limits Of Predictive Power: Graham Allison’s “Destined For War”

The central thesis of Dr. Graham Allison’s Destined for War:  Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? is relatively straightforward to state.  When a rising power (China) is confronted by a relatively declining power (the United States), the declining one often resorts to making war on its enemy.  Allison’s term for this phenomenon is “Thucydides’s Trap,” a phrase taken from the following observation by the great Greek historian: Continue reading